In football, attacking teams attempt to break through the opponent's defensive line to create scoring opportunities. This action, known as a Line Break, is a critical indicator of offensive effectiveness and tactical performance, yet previous studies have mainly focused on shots or goal opportunities rather than on how teams break the defensive line. In this study, we develop a machine learning model to predict Line Breaks using event and tracking data from the 2023 J1 League season. The model incorporates 189 features, including player positions, velocities, and spatial configurations, and employs an XGBoost classifier to estimate the probability of Line Breaks. The proposed model achieved high predictive accuracy, with an AUC of 0.982 and a Brier score of 0.015. Furthermore, SHAP analysis revealed that factors such as offensive player speed, gaps in the defensive line, and offensive players' spatial distributions significantly contribute to the occurrence of Line Breaks. Finally, we found a moderate positive correlation between the predicted probability of being Line-Broken and the number of shots and crosses conceded at the team level. These results suggest that Line Breaks are closely linked to the creation of scoring opportunities and provide a quantitative framework for understanding tactical dynamics in football.

Like many team sports, basketball involves two groups of players who engage in collaborative and adversarial activities to win a game. Players and teams are executing various complex strategies to gain an advantage over their opponents. Defining, identifying, and analyzing different types of activities is an important task in sports analytics, as it can lead to better strategies and decisions by the players and coaching staff. The objective of this paper is to automatically recognize basketball group activities from tracking data representing locations of players and the ball during a game. We propose a novel deep learning approach for group activity recognition (GAR) in team sports called NETS. To efficiently model the player relations in team sports, we combined a Transformer-based architecture with LSTM embedding, and a team-wise pooling layer to recognize the group activity. Training such a neural network generally requires a large amount of annotated data, which incurs high labeling cost. To address scarcity of manual labels, we generate weak-labels and pretrain the neural network on a self-supervised trajectory prediction task. We used a large tracking data set from 632 NBA games to evaluate our approach. The results show that NETS is capable of learning group activities with high accuracy, and that self- and weak-supervised training in NETS have a positive impact on GAR accuracy.

American football is an increasingly popular sport, with a growing audience in many countries in the world. The most watched American football league in the world is the United States' National Football League (NFL), where every offensive play can be either a run or a pass, and in this work we focus on passes. Many factors can affect the probability of pass completion, such as receiver separation from the nearest defender, distance from receiver to passer, offense formation, among many others. When predicting the completion probability of a pass, it is essential to know who the target of the pass is. By using distance measures between players and the ball, it is possible to calculate empirical probabilities and predict very accurately who the target will be. The big question is: how likely is it for a pass to be completed in an NFL match while the ball is in the air? We developed a machine learning algorithm to answer this based on several predictors. Using data from the 2018 NFL season, we obtained conditional and marginal predictions for pass completion probability based on a random forest model. This is based on a two-stage procedure: first, we calculate the probability of each offensive player being the pass target, then, conditional on the target, we predict completion probability based on the random forest model. Finally, the general completion probability can be calculated using the law of total probability. We present animations for selected plays and show the pass completion probability evolution.

You might think your TV is'Super Bowl ready,' but are you really prepared for the big day? Here are some tips from columnist Marc Saltzman to make sure your TV is set up perfectly. For many football fans, getting a little "action" on the Super Bowl is as commonplace as the wings and beer. Whether it is betting on the outcome of the game itself or participating in "prop bets" (such as whether the opening coin toss will be heads or tails) or "boxes" (also known as "squares," where you try to predict the correct last digit of the NFC and AFC team's score), wagers of various kinds can often be found at Super Bowl parties across the country. That's in addition to the $138.5 million legally bet through licensed sports books in Nevada.

One drawback with using plan recognition in adversarial games is that often players must commit to a plan before it is possible to infer the opponent's intentions. In such cases, it is valuable to couple plan recognition with plan repair, particularly in multi-agent domains where complete replanning is not computationally feasible. This paper presents a method for learning plan repair policies in real-time using Upper Confidence Bounds applied to Trees (UCT). We demonstrate how these policies can be coupled with plan recognition in an American football game (Rush 2008) to create an autonomous offensive team capable of responding to unexpected changes in defensive strategy. Our real-time version of UCT learns play modifications that result in a significantly higher average yardage and fewer interceptions than either the baseline game or domain-specific heuristics. Although it is possible to use the actual game simulator to measure reward offline, to execute UCT in real-time demands a different approach; here we describe two modules for reusing data from offline UCT searches to learn accurate state and reward estimators.

Automatic transfer of learned knowledge from one task or domain to another offers great potential to simplify and expedite the construction and deployment of intelligent systems. In practice however, there are many barriers to achieving this goal. In this article, we present a prototype system for the real-world context of transferring knowledge of American football from video observation to control in a game simulator. We trace an example play from the raw video through execution and adaptation in the simulator, highlighting the system's component algorithms along with issues of complexity, generality, and scale. We then conclude with a discussion of the implications of this work for other applications, along with several possible improvements.